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Fossil-fuel addiction.

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Crowan
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Me on climate change again!

Despite the fact that we'd like the idea of renewables replacing fossil fuels, still 85%+ of energy comes from coal, oil and gas.

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amy green
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Even if world leaders kept their pledge to restrict greenhouse emissions by reducing fossil fuel usage, do you know about the alternative, i.e. biofuels? Growing crops to provide fuel! Don't get me started....

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Crowan
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This is a big problem - that all the alternatives are based on the notion of constant growth. This is totally unsustainable and will lead to total collapse.

If, a few decades ago, we had embraced de-growth (as many of us did individually) there might well have been a chance to turn this around.

I've been discussing what is likely to happen with friends on Facebook. This is a generally agreed list of at least some of the things we can look forward to:

[LIST=1]

  • Internet outages
  • Power outages
  • Schools and universities closed
  • Suspension of full banking activity for days
  • Nationalisation of banks
  • No or limited withdrawals from cash machines
  • Credit/debit cards won’t work
  • Petrol stations running out of fuel
  • Food shortages
  • Mass disorder, panic, riots
  • Martial law imposed, curfews
  • Rise in popularity of extreme political parties
  • Total collapse of old order followed by a command economy and loss of personal freedom
  • Near-total unravelling of the socio-political order.
  • Local Resource wars
  • Generational conflict
  • 5 isn't a bad idea. 12 is happening already, leading to 10 and 11. With all the crop failures around the world, 9 is already happening and can only get worse.

    Interesting times ahead.

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    amy green
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    The first 4 could easily occur anyway with a rogue, intense solar flare that affects satellites and, hence, access to the internet!

    What you envisage is the worst case scenario...the world leaders are too selfish (for anything that might upset their lifestyle) and savvy to let us all get that far.

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    Crowan
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    Which world leaders do you think will save us?

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    amy green
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    Which world leaders do you think will save us?

    What I am getting at is that they won't want to live in a world such as you envisaged, so it is unlikely to get to that stage.

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    Crowan
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    All pie-in-the-sky. But it doesn't matter if their plans are realistic or not, just so long as they think they can survive.

    But, of course, the thing that has allowed it to get too far is that 'leaders' don't really believe it will ever get that bad. I know you don't. either. I'd love to see some evidence!

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    amy green
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    All pie-in-the-sky. But it doesn't matter if their plans are realistic or not, just so long as they think they can survive.

    But, of course, the thing that has allowed it to get too far is that 'leaders' don't really believe it will ever get that bad. I know you don't. either. I'd love to see some evidence!

    I guess it all comes down to faith in the world not descending into a chaotic, barbaric and anarchic hell. I could say the same to you, i.e. I'd love to see some evidence of this. Do you see telltale signs of society coming apart at the seams? I see that as pure speculation.

    Control, law and order still firmly exist...maybe too much so for many!

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    Crowan
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    I guess it all comes down to faith in the world not descending into a chaotic, barbaric and anarchic hell. I could say the same to you, i.e. I'd love to see some evidence of this. Do you see telltale signs of society coming apart at the seams? I see that as pure speculation.

    Control, law and order still firmly exist...maybe too much so for many!

    How can it be any other way? There is already sufficient damage done to the climate for temperatures to rise globally to levels unable to support human life. We already passed 400ppm CO2 last year. Central Africa and the middle east are already too hot. Fires and flooding across North America. Massive crop failures.

    So, food shortages and many, many climate refugees. That will lead to even more 'chaotic and barbaric' situations. (I've left out 'anarchic'. I'm surprised a good left-winger like yourself uses it to mean the same as chaotic and barbaric!) This added to chaotic and often dangerous weather.

    Rising sea levels, storms and more tectonic activity - and how many nuclear power stations are on coasts? If we were serious about survival we'd have started decommissioning them a couple of decades ago. More Fukushimas. More Chernobyls, since they need constant monitoring.

    Methane release from seas and permafrost will worsen all of this.

    You mention "Control, law and order still firmly exist...maybe too much so for many!" You'll see that this are points 11, 12 and 13. As people get more scared they look around for scapegoats and they support politicians who encourage such scapegoating. That's already happening.

    You spoke of 'world leaders'. Who do you have in mind? Trump? May? Erdoğan?

    I guess it does come down to faith. Faith can be based on evidence. Or it can be blind faith.

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    amy green
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    By world leaders I was referring to the Paris agreement to curb greenhouse emissions.

    Yes, of course, I acknowledge the changing times of more desperate situations....however civilisation/society is not coming apart at the seams. Currently I am particularly concerned about the appalling Italian migrant crisis - such situations will eventually be addressed (one way or the other) but, unfortunately, too late for many that have lost their lives.

    What is this political scapegoating that you refer to? I am inspired by the survivors of Grenfell Tower since they will NOT be trampled on! This appalling tragedy (corporate manslaughter) is not something that the government can brush under the carpet.

    Unprecedented upheaval is disturbing and challenging but we are not yet at the doomed scenario you seem to envisage as inevitable.

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    Crowan
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    By world leaders I was referring to the Paris agreement to curb greenhouse emissions.

    Ah, yes. The non-binding agreement.

    What is this political scapegoating that you refer to?

    You're serious? Muslims in USA, Gays in Russia. Etc.

    I am inspired by the survivors of Grenfell Tower since they will NOT be trampled on! This appalling tragedy (corporate manslaughter) is not something that the government can brush under the carpet.

    I hope you're right. But they're making pretty good attempts.

    Unprecedented upheaval is disturbing and challenging but we are not yet at the doomed scenario you seem to envisage as inevitable.

    Did you read the link I posted? What are your arguments against it?

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    amy green
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    You're serious? Muslims in USA, Gays in Russia. Etc.

    Did you read the link I posted? What are your arguments against it?

    I know political scapegoating exists...I just wondered which ones you were referring to. I am not saying everything is rosy, by the way!

    Ah yes, your links. Preppers are nothing new, i.e. Americans in particular have been doing this (I think you may know this though). Ha! So now the wealthy want in - surprised? Of course, I think it is excellent that some canny people are exploiting this and ripping them off with deluxe bunkers etc....where there's a market, there's $$$£££.

    I think society may well suffer irrepairably in the future (I envisage something to do with a major, natural catastrophic occurrence) but what I can't influence I am not gonna lose sleep over or focus on. There is FAR too much negativity in the world...I am in the 'business' of having a positive mindset (now hardwired into me for some 3 decades now). I'm done with the fatalistic scenario (in terms of psychology/victim mentality). I prefer to look at what can be done and empowerment.

    Worrying too much about the future is futile...a lot of 'what ifs' that (on reflection) never come to pass due to unforeseen other factors changing the course of events.

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    Crowan
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    I think society may well suffer irrepairably in the future (I envisage something to do with a major, natural catastrophic occurrence) but what I can't influence I am not gonna lose sleep over or focus on. There is FAR too much negativity in the world...I am in the 'business' of having a positive mindset (now hardwired into me for some 3 decades now). I'm done with the fatalistic scenario (in terms of psychology/victim mentality). I prefer to look at what can be done and empowerment.

    Worrying too much about the future is futile...a lot of 'what ifs' that (on reflection) never come to pass due to unforeseen other factors changing the course of events.

    I'm not sure what factors could change the methane situation, or the melting ice, or many other problems. Do you never make plans based on scientific predictions? Tomorrow's weather, for example?

    Besides, I rarely worry about anything and certainly don't lose sleep. And I don't see the point of any mindset that would make me ignore what is so.

    Interesting that you chose the links about prepping and ignored the one that started the discussion. That was the one I was referring to when I asked for your arguments.

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    amy green
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    I'm not sure what factors could change the methane situation, or the melting ice, or many other problems. Do you never make plans based on scientific predictions? Tomorrow's weather, for example?

    Besides, I rarely worry about anything and certainly don't lose sleep. And I don't see the point of any mindset that would make me ignore what is so.

    Interesting that you chose the links about prepping and ignored the one that started the discussion. That was the one I was referring to when I asked for your arguments.

    I tend to not make plans for the future. I am very much focused on the dynamic, unfolding present. Regarding weather, yes I have several methods of comparing tomorrow's forecast and they often don't even agree! This was more relevant to me when I was a cyclist.

    You did not make it clear which link you were referring to but, as to the OP link, I have no way of accessing the credentials of Barry Saxifrage so am reluctant to take his predictions on board.

    Incidentally, the EU Paris agreement on climate change is legally binding.

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    Crowan
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    Incidentally, the EU Paris agreement on climate change is legally binding.

    The EU has voted to make it so for EU countries. That doesn't include the rest of the world. It won't include us soon.

    Barry Saxifrage is a well known (to those of us who follow such things) and well respected researcher and writer. He and his wife (also a writer) live in Canada. They run a website - Visual Carbon - which documents and explains climate change issues. Of course, it's probably easier not to believe anything he writes.

    Weather? That's because only the Met Office employs meterologists, and The Guardian is the only paper/website that subscribes to the Met Office. The rest hang seaweed up!

    I'm not 'making plans'. But ignoring what's happening? Why would I do that?

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    amy green
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    The EU has voted to make it so for EU countries. That doesn't include the rest of the world. It won't include us soon.

    Barry Saxifrage is a well known (to those of us who follow such things) and well respected researcher and writer. He and his wife (also a writer) live in Canada. They run a website - Visual Carbon - which documents and explains climate change issues. Of course, it's probably easier not to believe anything he writes.

    Weather? That's because only the Met Office employs meterologists, and The Guardian is the only paper/website that subscribes to the Met Office. The rest hang seaweed up!

    I'm not 'making plans'. But ignoring what's happening? Why would I do that?

    I don't think the BBC use the Met Office weather predictions since they differ quite often.

    I am not ignoring what's happening by doubting future predictions (that's where we differ) particularly if they spring from just one voice/source.

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    Crowan
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    I don't think the BBC use the Met Office weather predictions since they differ quite often.

    I am not ignoring what's happening by doubting future predictions (that's where we differ) particularly if they spring from just one voice/source.

    No, the BBC stopped using the Met Office a few years ago.

    The same 'predictions' (I put it in inverted commas because mostly it's information. The predictions are science based.) are coming from many sources. And there aren't actually predictions in this article, just facts.

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    amy green
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    No, the BBC stopped using the Met Office a few years ago.

    The same 'predictions' (I put it in inverted commas because mostly it's information. The predictions are science based.) are coming from many sources. And there aren't actually predictions in this article, just facts.

    Since when can future predictions become facts? The current situation is factual....beyond that is conjecture.

    Interesting that science isn't even accurate enough yet to predict tomorrow's weather .... ha!

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    Crowan
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    Since when can future predictions become facts? The current situation is factual....beyond that is conjecture.

    Interesting that science isn't even accurate enough yet to predict tomorrow's weather .... ha!

    Weather prediction is fairly accurate (if you use the Met Office!) up to about 4 days. They've always said that it's probability.
    Climate is not weather, of course. It doesn't help to confuse the two.

    The article I posted was facts about the current situation. I, personally, think these facts add up to disaster. You think that they don't. Your prediction that World Leaders won't let anything happen is still a prediction. Your belief that we are not heading to disaster is still a prediction.

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    amy green
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    Weather prediction is fairly accurate (if you use the Met Office!) up to about 4 days. They've always said that it's probability.
    Climate is not weather, of course. It doesn't help to confuse the two.

    The article I posted was facts about the current situation. I, personally, think these facts add up to disaster. You think that they don't. Your prediction that World Leaders won't let anything happen is still a prediction. Your belief that we are not heading to disaster is still a prediction.

    The link in your OP was mostly based on facts...until it strayed into 2030 (Carbon dioxide in atmosphere) i.e. making a guess based on the current rise.

    My belief is just a belief...I am not sticking my neck out to say 'this is how it will be' i.e. making a prediction. It's futile to me.

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    Crowan
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    That's not a prediction, it's showing where we'll be in 2030 if emissions continue as they are doing. And shows the increase from the 1960s. That's no more a prediction than saying, "If you go along this road you'll reach Cardiff".

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    amy green
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    That's not a prediction, it's showing where we'll be in 2030 if emissions continue as they are doing. And shows the increase from the 1960s. That's no more a prediction than saying, "If you go along this road you'll reach Cardiff".

    Yes it's making a prediction (forecast) based on the current trend which presupposes nothing changes.

    "If you go along this road, the road leads to Cardiff but you have freewill as to whether you go where it leads to...i.e. you may decide to change route sometime along the way."

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    Crowan
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    Yes it's making a prediction (forecast) based on the current trend which presupposes nothing changes.

    "If you go along this road, the road leads to Cardiff but you have freewill as to whether you go where it leads to...i.e. you may decide to change route sometime along the way."

    Absolutely. But if you're already with the city boundary, you aren't going to get to Abertawe without at least a bit of Cardiff.

    If you look at the graph that you are claiming is a 'prediction', you will see that all it is doing is saying 'If ..., then ...' That's not prediction. Within the graph is the information that human activity has already altered the outcome.

    (I'm making the assumption that you can read graphs. I know that isn't so for everyone but you seem pretty clued up. I'm sorry if my assumption is wrong.)

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    amy green
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    Absolutely. But if you're already with the city boundary, you aren't going to get to Abertawe without at least a bit of Cardiff.

    If you look at the graph that you are claiming is a 'prediction', you will see that all it is doing is saying 'If ..., then ...' That's not prediction. Within the graph is the information that human activity has already altered the outcome.

    (I'm making the assumption that you can read graphs. I know that isn't so for everyone but you seem pretty clued up. I'm sorry if my assumption is wrong.)

    Who can foresee what can happen on that Scottish road! Life is not always so predictable and straight forward....think of the best laid plans and all that we have to juggle that stops us going straight from A to B in life!

    Whilst I understand the concept "If...then...", it seems abundantly clear that there are no maybes with yourself, i.e. that you are totally convinced that we are inevitably destined for doom and the breakdown of society. I am just trying to highlight how that destiny is much less clear cut e.g. who knows what we will uncover with new technology that will change how we produce and use energy (hopefully better than biofuels). I will unwatch this thread now - it's becoming exhausting again.

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    Crowan
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    Scottish?!

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    amy green
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    Scottish?!

    Ha...you see how exhausted I was! Can't think straight. I have decided not to interact with future threads of yours that depict a doom and gloom future scenario. I doubt that you enjoy such interactions either. It is quite telling that no one else here seems to be interested in these future environmental predictions either - maybe facebook is a better medium for such discussions (since you have got sufficient feedback there). No hard feelings - we are poles apart on this issue.

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    Principled
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    Amy, I've been reading this thread from time to time, but it was too too negative for me. I only expect the best and am always filled with hope as, through prayer, I have time and again seen things that appear to be hopeless - whether physical, mental, emotional, supply, employment, weather, etc, just dissolve, so I definitely don't go along with doom and gloom and didn't want to take it on with this thread. There are enough fundamentalist religious people who go on about the end of the world - believe me! :rolleyes:

    As the saying goes, "Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday".

    I popped in here today to see if anyone's pleased about the announcement that fossil fuel cars will be phased out in only 23 years. It's a very brave decision - don't suppose the oil companies will be happy - but instead of welcoming it, groups like Greenpeace are complaining that it's too little, too late. For goodness sake - give us a break! 😡

    Love and peace,

    Judy

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    I do wonder though how all the electricity is going to be generated to charge all these new battery cars. Electricity doesn't generate itself. I also wonder what is going to be done with the old batteries once they fail. There is such an outcry over the disposal of ordinary domestic batteries. .

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    amy green
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    I do wonder though how all the electricity is going to be generated to charge all these new battery cars. Electricity doesn't generate itself. I also wonder what is going to be done with the old batteries once they fail. There is such an outcry over the disposal of ordinary domestic batteries. .

    So what we gain re. oil consumption we lose out with electricity i.e. have to somehow boost our current capacity! Swings and roundabouts spring to mind.

    There doesn't seem to be joined up thinking at this stage with this new announcement. Even Sadiq Khan - who wants diesel cars scrapped NOW - has said it is half hearted re. properly introducing the diesel scrappage scheme. 2040 is a LONG way off and the air pollution in London frequently exceeds legal safety levels. Lest there is any doubt, the statistic is that nearly 9,500 deaths annually due to air pollution in London. Truly shocking!

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