Swine flu H1N1

I do wonder what 'They' aren't telling us

As someone who (albeit inderectly) works for 'Them' I may be slightly biased, but it's not so much as 'what is being told' as 'what is being asked'.

The 'media' are constantly after the 'next big scare story' and once something hits the headlines it is very seldom followed up - all the previous 'health scares' CJD/BSE, SARS, H5N1, O517 etc are still 'out there' but the collective public consciousness has a very short memory and prefers to ponder on some mind-numbing 'talent' show or a 'celebrity' wedding than matters that really affect their lives.
If there was more public interest, the health and science community would have more opportunity to explain their work and more emphasis from 'pressure groups' working with scientists rather than against them would also encourage far more public discussions on this sort of thing.
It's not the scientists who want to keep things quiet but in this current climate of 'antiscience' and violent orchestrated protests there are very few senior scientists in the field of biological reserach who are willing to be a high profile public figure........

......anyway, rant over 😉

These variant flu viruses are a serious public health concern: unlike 'normal' flu which is seasonal and most serious in weakened (either already ill, immunocompromised, undernourished etc) or elederly people, the variants seem to be more damaging in younger, healthier people - possibly because part of the pathology is the immune systems response to the virus rather than just the virus itself.

As to whether to 'worry' - probably not, well this time anyway!
The human-human transmission is quite poor and the virus seems to lose potency the more human hosts it passes through. However long term, it does show just how global an infective outbreak can be and does give concern that a virulent, but slow developing, infection could be worldwide before it is even detected :confused:

Hi Devonmassage

I had to laugh when I saw your reference to Capt Trips as that is the first thought that went through my mind when I read the report on Yahoo news lol. After reading The Stand ANY 'flu type epidemic always makes me think of 'The Walking Dude'!

Love and light

reikiangel

xxx

Thanks for the perspective, muzone.

What I'll call swine flu hit the news about half a week ago? I'm surprised there aren't more posts on HP - maybe that's a good sign of no fear or panic. I seem to recall a long thread, at times fearful, during the last threat of Asian avian flu a few years back. Pandemics of virulent flu can be incredibly serious, but there are good signs so far over this one in very early days. During the last avian flu scare there was plenty in the news about the huge outbreak of 1918 which was killing more people in the WWI trenches than the fighting, went global, and wiped out virtually whole villages. As I recall, it claimed 20% of the world's population. It's kind of an unreported story.

(I'm no flu expert at all BTW.) The opinion those few years back was that flu pandemics happen about every generation, and if you go a long time without one - as we now have - there's less resistance so they hit far harder. A pandemic per generation was/is thought to keep up more resistance. People were worried last time and I think it was wise to be concerned.

But the last one was contained, and this one looks less virulent. Just looking at the news, in Mexico at this point about 1,400 have been identified with it, and 1,000 already recovering, with a few tens of deaths. (So we might work at percentages here - but US cases seem strangely to be less virulent. Is it losing strength as it's passed on?)

During the possible outbreak a few years back, nations also had almost no Tamiflu stocks: Tamiflu doesn't stop you getting it, but is said to much relieve symptoms, and the UK now has 33 million vaccinations of it, so our country has been preparing this time.

Worry does no good at all, but I guess we should be keeping a concerned eye on the news. Not that there's much we can do ...

Currently the BBC has:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8017585.stm
and
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8018887.stm - where it says the situation should be clearer within three days as to how much it's spread.

V

but US cases seem strangely to be less virulent. Is it losing strength as it's passed on?)
V

Almost certainly, and also factor in that Mexico City has very poor air quality so innate repsiratory immune systems (aka non-specific immunity) will be very much depressed even compared to other industrialised poplulation centres........

Thanks for your interesting replies, I hope more will join the debate.

I watch the media. as we all do, but if I want more acurate facts, I use the internet and try and get as close to the source as possible, ignore the hysteria and check back now and again for updates.

When I refer to 'They' it's not necessarily meant in a negative way. 'They' means the shadowy people/agencies that may have authority over the scientists and others. The effect for us is a trickle filter so we, the public, have a sanitised version of events as seen in the press and no idea of what, if anything, lies beneath.

Flu pandemics happen about every 18-25 years or so give or take - we're a couple of years overdue now. The pandemics also come in waves - it's not just one wave that sweeps the world in a few months end of, but more likely 2,3 or more over a year or two. This H1N1 so far seems to have a 10-12% mortality rate, but as more cases arise that figure will change - probably downward.

I'm not sure the UK (who is supposed to be the best prepared nation in the world) is as well prepared as we are made to believe. Tamiflu will understandably be given to those on the frontline - key services - medical, police, military. Tamiflu is given in a couple of doses, not a single shot (unless it's been developed further recently and I didn't know) so the 33m doses becomes 16.5m - just enough for those key workers and the few who are regarded as entitled to the jab. Certainly not most of the population as we are told. The scientists can't develop a vaccine until they've isolated the virus and if it's mutating they can't do that. This process can take several months from the onset of the last mutation of the flu. Then there's the time taken to manufacture the vaccine in large quanities.

At the moment, my concerns are more about the effects on the infrastructure than the flu itself. If everyone is at home being ill or quarantined, then who's there to treat our sick, police the streets, bake our bread etc?

Oh dear, I sound more like a conspirecy theorist than I thought!:eek:

Reikiangel: me too - Robert D. Campion and Flagg have alot to answer for!:D The Stand is not the usual King offering and brilliant - my fave book, lol.

Tamiflu is given in a couple of doses, not a single shot (unless it's been developed further recently and I didn't know) so the 33m doses becomes 16.5m - just enough for those key workers and the few who are regarded as entitled to the jab.

tamiflu is an oral medicine not a jab, the adult dose for treatment is 75mg twice a day for 5 days, for prevention 75mg once a day for 10 days - UK Govt figures suggest there is sufficient tamiflu stockpile to treat about 50% of the population, key workers will be given preventative dose at first sign of mass infection, rest of population given treatment dose where outbreaks occur.

Most keyworkers already have their tamiflu (or it is held at their place of work by designated peersons) to prevent the logistical problems of delivering it in time

Best source of official info on public health matters is probably the HPA website http://www.hpa.org.uk/

The word 'antivirals' was used in Commons, very non-specific as there are different ones - not a definative referral to Tamiflu. There are 33m doses, which, if distributed evenly would cover 50% of the population; however it doesn't necessrily work like that. Btw, I mistakenly used the word 'shot', although I was talking about oral meds too.

I thought people may be interested in these quotes for further information:
--
>Tamiflu is not a substitute for influenza vaccination. Use of Tamiflu must not affect the evaluation of individuals for annual influenza vaccination. The protection against influenza lasts only as long as Tamiflu is administered. Tamiflu should be used for the treatment and prevention of influenza only when reliable epidemiological data indicate that influenza virus is circulating in the community.

>Prevention during an influenza epidemic in the community
The recommended dose for prevention of influenza during a community outbreak is 75 mg oseltamivir once daily for up to 6 weeks.

--
Therefore more than one dose or course may well be needed for pandemic infection prophelaxsis. Especially given that key workers would (rightly) get the 6wks course [or longer - see above quote]. Thus reducing the amount of doses available to the wider population. Not quite what we Joe Public are told.

I agree, the information given out is patchy and unclear 🙁

AFAIK the antivirals referred to are tamiflu (oseltamivir) and relenza (zanamivir).

The real logistical problem I see is that there isn't the infrastructure to deal with screening on the scale needed if a pandemic situation arose, so hampering the concept of giving treatment to those found to be positive for the virus.

Is this the answer? That the UK doesn't have 30 million vaccines or 'shots', but courses?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8020386.stm

[COLOR="Blue"]The WHO has praised the UK - along with France - for being the best prepared.

More than 30m courses of anti-viral drugs have been bought - enough to treat half the population.

V

I agree, the information given out is patchy and unclear 🙁

I'm glad you can see that, and also it's (s)electively given, I believe.

Is this the answer? That the UK doesn't have 30 million vaccines or 'shots', but courses

My bad - :rolleyes: at myself, I was indeed meaning >a complete standard course< and used the wrong words to describe that; so please read my post again with that in mind, the point I make still stands. Saves me re-writing!:)

.... it's (s)electively given, I believe.

That's the crux of the matter, the way the info is disseminated - as long as science and public health policy is determined by political motivation it will always be spun with a 'we are trying all we can so don't worry' message - when in fact many aspects should be discussed, worried about and acted upon now, not when a politician finds it expedient.

Too early to spoil this nice sunny day with a rant, but I can feel one brewing :dft005:

Oh dear,

Here we go again - the selling of sickness through fear. A good time to buy shares in pharmaceutical companies who must be rubbing their hands in glee! 😉 Guess it must be helping the newspapers generate much-needed business too!

I went and looked at what I'd written during the avian flu scare (and I think I did one for Sars before that) and found a thread started on the 30th September 2005 by Darren (FollowsThePath) titled [url]Bird flu 'could kill 150m people'[/url]

I've resurrected it as it's quite interesting to look back at all the same media hysteria then. It's worth re-reading, though bits are missing due to new software on HP a few years ago. There is a website link that claims the whole avain flu thing was man-made. Doesn't suprise me.

I was horrified about 10/15 years ago to read about how scientists were digging up some bodies in the permafrost who had died of the Spanish Flu that decimated millions after the First World War. They had decided that it was "time" we had another pandemic and they were preparing for it.

Then, in yesterday's Christian Science Monitor, there is an article about how science is approaching it, with a photo with this caption:

In this 2005 handout photo acquired from the CDC on April 24, Dr. Terrence Tumpey, microbiologist with the US Centers for Disease Control, examines specimens of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, a virus that he reconstructed. The "swine flu" virus is believed to be similar to the 1918 virus.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0428/p02s04-usgn.html

Man-made indeed. That's what I find scary. But thankfully, I also know that there is a power stronger than the most deadly virus.

Judy

Diseases will come and go, that's the nature of nature. We only need to look to history to realise that diseases evolve and mutate in just the same way as any other living thing. We should also be aware that because of the increased life expectancy, diseases that weren't a problem in the past are now becoming more of a risk in an ageing population.

But we do have an issue with the disease of fear. Fear creates markets, newspaper sales go up, and the big pharma reap the increased revenue. It's also good for governments, because it takes the eye off their problems while they can busy sorting out a problem that statistically may soon be just yesterday's news.

But while this news story is hot, there are real losers. The NHS becomes swamped by the "worried well", operations get postponed while hospitals prepare for what might happen. Many will become paralysed by fear and turn in a sicky because their hayfever is thought to be something else.

In developing countries millions still die every day from; malaria, HIV, cholera, typhoid and TB. Resources will be re-assigned away from current health projects and therefore, the increased deaths in the world through this potential pandemic may be far greater than those who fall victim to swine flu.

Myarka.

I watch the media. as we all do,

Actually I rarely watch the media, and many people who don't have a TV also don't watch the negative press constantly spoken about.